Last updated: July 24, 2026 | Reviewed by Mario Vaghei, General Manager, Aire One Peel — our heat pump carbon footprint guide for Ontario homeowners
The heat pump carbon footprint question has a clearer answer in Ontario than almost anywhere else in Canada, and you do not have to take a manufacturer's word for it. In the winter of 2023 and 2024, six real homes in Mississauga, Brampton, and Caledon had cold climate heat pumps installed alongside their existing gas furnaces, and researchers read their actual meters for the whole season. This guide uses those measured results instead of marketing claims, so you can see what a heat pump installation would realistically do to your emissions and your bill. The numbers below show the true heat pump carbon footprint for real Ontario households.
The short answer: a heat pump cuts your home heating carbon footprint sharply in Ontario because the province's electricity is roughly 84 percent emissions free, while burning natural gas releases carbon directly. In a measured Peel Region pilot, six homes cut whole home gas use by 62 to 91 percent and reduced emissions by roughly 0.7 to 2.1 tonnes of CO2e each in a single partial heating season. The catch is money, not carbon: at current rates those same homes landed close to break even on utility bills.
Aire One Peel is a Carrier Factory Authorized contractor serving Mississauga and the Peel Region since 1990.
Key takeaways
- Ontario's grid is the reason the math works. Roughly 84 percent of provincial electricity is emissions free, so electric heat here is genuinely low carbon.
- Per unit of delivered heat, a heat pump running at a seasonal efficiency of about 2.9 produces roughly one eighth the emissions of a high efficiency gas furnace in Ontario.
- Six Peel homes measured a 62 to 91 percent drop in whole home gas use over one winter.
- Bills came in near break even, from a $75 increase to a $145 saving. Treat this as a carbon and comfort upgrade first.
- Ontario's Home Renovation Savings program is funded through November 30, 2026. Gas heated homes qualify for far less than the headline number.
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What this guide covers
- How a heat pump carbon footprint compares to a gas furnace
- What six Peel Region homes actually measured
- Why Ontario's electricity grid decides the answer
- The honest part: what happened to their bills
- 2026 rebates that lower the upfront cost
- How to get the most carbon reduction from your system
- Frequently asked questions
How a Heat Pump Carbon Footprint Compares to a Gas Furnace
A furnace makes heat by burning fuel, so its emissions are fixed by chemistry. A heat pump does not make heat at all. It moves heat that already exists in the outdoor air into your house, which is why it can deliver two to three units of heat for every unit of electricity it draws.
That difference is what shrinks the footprint. Burning one cubic metre of natural gas releases about 1,927 grams of CO2e, according to Canada's National Inventory Report. One cubic metre holds roughly 10.36 kilowatt hours of energy, and a high efficiency furnace delivers about 96 percent of it into your rooms. Work that through and every kilowatt hour of heat from your furnace carries roughly 194 grams of CO2e.
Now run the same kilowatt hour through a heat pump. At a seasonal efficiency of 2.9, which is what the Peel homes measured, it needs about 0.35 kilowatt hours of electricity. Ontario electricity carries roughly 71 grams of CO2e per kilowatt hour, so that heat arrives with about 25 grams of CO2e attached. That is close to one eighth the emissions for the same warmth.
Natural Resources Canada reaches the same conclusion at a national level. Its assessment of cold climate air source heat pumps found they produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions than gas furnaces in British Columbia, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick. Ontario is on that list because of how the province makes electricity, which is worth understanding before you commit.
What Six Peel Region Homes Actually Measured
To understand the real heat pump carbon footprint, researchers measured actual homes rather than models. The Sustainable Technologies Evaluation Program, run by the Toronto and Region Conservation Authority with funding from the Region of Peel, tracked six local homes through the winter of 2023 and 2024. Each one kept its gas furnace and added a heat pump, creating what the industry calls a hybrid system. Researchers read gas and electricity meters monthly and pulled thermostat data at five minute intervals.
| Home | Location | Built | Gas use cut | Carbon cut | Net bill change | Efficiency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mississauga | 1985 | 75% | 1.4 tonnes | $29 saved | 2.9 |
| 2 | Bolton, Caledon | 2005 | 86% | 0.7 tonnes | $39 saved | 3.3 |
| 3 | Mississauga | 1998 | 71% | 2.1 tonnes | $10 saved | 2.9 |
| 4 | Mississauga | 1976 | 67% | 1.7 tonnes | $75 increase | 2.5 |
| 5 | Brampton | After 1990 | 62% | 2.0 tonnes | $145 saved | Not confirmed |
| 6 | Mississauga | 1965 | 91% | 1.0 tonnes | $30 saved | 2.4 |
Source: Sustainable Technologies Evaluation Program, Region of Peel pilot, July 2024. Carbon and cost figures reflect partial heating seasons of differing lengths, so annual totals would be higher. All amounts in CAD.
A few things stand out. The 1965 side split in Mississauga cut its gas use the most, at 91 percent, which pushes back on the idea that only new homes are good candidates. Home 4 was the only one that lost money, and it was also the only one that installed a unit which did not meet the cold climate standard. That single detail matters more than almost any other choice in the project.
Furnace gas use specifically dropped by 77 to 100 percent across the homes. In five of the six, the heat pump was still carrying the house at outdoor temperatures below -10°C. Homeowners were unanimous on the soft measures too: all of them found their home comfortable, all reported a good installation experience, and all said they would recommend a heat pump to someone else. Several said they would have switched sooner had they known.
Why Ontario's Electricity Grid Decides the Answer
The heat pump carbon footprint in Ontario depends heavily on how clean the local electricity grid is. A heat pump is only as clean as the power behind it. In Ontario that power is unusually clean. The Independent Electricity System Operator reported that in 2024 nuclear supplied 51 percent of provincial electricity and hydro added about 24 percent, leaving natural gas at 16 percent. That puts the grid at roughly 84 percent emissions free.
It is worth being straight about the trend. That 84 percent figure is down from 87 percent the year before and from a high of 96 percent in 2017, as more gas generation came online to cover growing demand and nuclear refurbishments. Ontario's grid is still among the cleanest in North America and remains far cleaner than burning fuel in your basement, but it is not getting cleaner every single year, and any contractor telling you otherwise is skipping a detail.
The practical takeaway is simple. The same heat pump installed in Alberta would cut far less carbon, because that grid leans on fossil generation. Here in Peel, the emissions case is strong today and does not depend on a future promise.
The Honest Part: What Happened to Their Bills
The heat pump carbon footprint story is not complete without the money side. This is where most articles about eco-friendly heating go quiet, so here is the plain version. Across the six Peel homes, net utility costs ranged from a $75 annual increase to a $145 annual saving. Most sat within about $40 of break even. Gas bills fell substantially and electricity bills rose to meet them.
The reason is Ontario's price structure rather than the equipment. Natural gas is cheap here relative to electricity, so a heat pump has to be roughly three times as efficient just to draw level on cost. It usually is, which is why these homes broke even instead of losing badly, but that is a different promise than the savings figures you often see quoted.
Two things shift the math in your favour over time. The first is that a heat pump is also your air conditioner, so if your existing AC is near the end of its life, you are comparing the heat pump against the cost of a replacement AC rather than against nothing. The second is that carbon pricing and gas rates move; the researchers modelled scenarios where annual savings reach several hundred dollars later in the system's roughly 15 year life. Current incentives are listed on our offers and rebates page.
2026 Rebates That Lower the Upfront Cost
Rebates change the heat pump carbon footprint math by lowering the upfront cost of switching. Ontario's Home Renovation Savings program, delivered by Save on Energy and Enbridge Gas, is the main incentive available in Peel right now. It is funded through November 30, 2026, though program terms allow it to change or end without notice. The amount you qualify for depends entirely on how your home is heated today, and this is the single most misunderstood part of the program.
| Your current heating | Air source heat pump rebate | Maximum |
|---|---|---|
| Natural gas furnace or boiler | $500 per ton | $2,000 |
| Electric, oil, propane, or wood | $1,250 per ton | $7,500 |
| Any heating type, ground source | Varies by capacity | Up to $12,000 |
| Oil heating, federal OHPA program | Separate program | Up to $15,000 |
All amounts in CAD. Program details verified July 2026 and subject to change. Confirm current terms with Save on Energy before booking work.
Most Peel homes run on natural gas, which means the realistic figure is the $2,000 cap rather than the $7,500 headline you will see in advertising. A typical Peel home takes a two to three ton system, so a gas heated household is usually looking at $1,000 to $1,500. Installed costs in the Peel pilot ran from $4,300 to $8,000 before tax and before rebates.
One rule is worth repeating because it costs people their money. If you bundle multiple upgrades, the pre-retrofit energy assessment has to be completed before any work starts. Beginning work early is the most common reason applications get rejected.
Ready to see what your home would actually save?
We will size the system to your home's real heat loss, tell you honestly whether a full changeover or a hybrid setup makes more sense, and walk you through the rebate paperwork before any work begins. Serving Mississauga, Brampton, Caledon, Milton, Georgetown, Bolton, and Etobicoke since 1990.
Aire One Peel Heating & Cooling
1625 Courtneypark Dr E, Mississauga, ON L5T 1V9
905-564-8545 | [email protected]
How to Get the Most Carbon Reduction From Your System
Getting the lowest heat pump carbon footprint depends on how the system is set up. The Peel study found that installation choices and settings, not the badge on the equipment, separated the strong results from the weak ones. Four lessons came out of it.
Insist on a true cold climate unit. The one home that installed a heat pump falling short of the cold climate standard was the only home whose bills went up. Cold climate models hold their capacity and efficiency down to -15°C, which is exactly when a Peel winter asks the most of them. Check that whatever you are quoted appears on Natural Resources Canada's qualified products list, which is also a rebate condition, and see the heat pump brands we carry.
Check the compressor cut-off setting. In one Mississauga home the thermostat handed over to the furnace below -4°C even though the heat pump could clearly have kept going. Every hour of unnecessary furnace runtime is carbon you paid to avoid and did not.
Use a programmed schedule rather than manual jumps. When a homeowner pushed the setpoint up by several degrees at once, the furnace fired to catch up. A gradual scheduled ramp lets the heat pump do the work on its own. Our guide on how smart thermostats enhance heat pump performance goes deeper into the settings that matter.
Get thermostat placement right. One home showed 1.5°C temperature swings traced back to return air flowing behind the thermostat, which caused long erratic cycles and unnecessary backup heat. A central location away from drafts and direct sun, or an external sensor, fixes it.
Ongoing care matters too. A system running with dirty coils or low refrigerant loses efficiency, and lost efficiency is lost carbon reduction. If yours is not keeping up, our heat pump repair team can diagnose it. Homeowners in Brampton and Milton can book through their local pages, and if cooling season is your bigger concern, our eco-friendly AC tips cover the summer half of the year.
Frequently Asked Questions
Do heat pumps really reduce your carbon footprint in Ontario?
The heat pump carbon footprint here is genuinely lower. Yes. Ontario's grid is roughly 84 percent emissions free, so electric heat here is genuinely low carbon. In a measured Peel Region pilot, six homes cut whole home gas use by 62 to 91 percent and reduced emissions by about 0.7 to 2.1 tonnes of CO2e each over a single partial heating season.
How much less carbon does a heat pump produce than a gas furnace?
The heat pump carbon footprint is a small fraction of a furnace. Per unit of delivered heat, roughly one eighth as much in Ontario. A high efficiency furnace carries about 194 grams of CO2e per kilowatt hour of heat. A heat pump running at a seasonal efficiency of 2.9 on Ontario electricity carries about 25 grams for the same heat.
Will a heat pump lower my heating bill in Mississauga?
Expect close to break even rather than large savings. The six Peel homes ranged from a $75 annual increase to a $145 annual saving. Natural gas is inexpensive in Ontario relative to electricity, so the strongest financial case is replacing an aging air conditioner, since a heat pump does both jobs.
Do heat pumps work in Peel Region winters?
Yes, and the heat pump carbon footprint stays low even in cold snaps. Cold climate models do. In five of the six Peel homes studied, the heat pump was still meeting the heating load at outdoor temperatures below -10°C. The gas furnace stayed in place as backup for the coldest stretches, which is why these setups are called hybrid systems.
What rebate can I get for a heat pump in Ontario in 2026?
Under the Home Renovation Savings program, gas heated homes receive $500 per ton up to a $2,000 maximum. Homes heated by electricity, oil, propane, or wood receive $1,250 per ton up to $7,500. The program is funded through November 30, 2026 and terms can change.
Should I remove my gas furnace or keep it as backup?
Either way, the heat pump carbon footprint drops sharply once it does most of the heating. Keeping it is the common choice in Peel and it is what every home in the pilot did. A hybrid setup lets the heat pump handle most of the season while the furnace covers extreme cold, and it avoids the cost of upgrading electrical service. Full changeover delivers more carbon reduction but needs a careful heat loss calculation first.
The Bottom Line
The heat pump carbon footprint case in Peel Region is not a projection, it is measured. Six local homes cut their gas use by 62 to 91 percent in one winter, stayed comfortable through the cold, and landed close to break even on their bills. If you are choosing between a replacement air conditioner and a heat pump, the emissions difference is large and the cost difference is small, which is a genuinely easy decision. If you are replacing a working furnace purely to save money, be honest with yourself that the payback is slow at today's Ontario rates.
Whichever way you lean, the details decide the outcome: a true cold climate unit, correct sizing, and settings that let the heat pump work rather than handing off to the furnace early. That is the difference between the home that cut 91 percent of its gas use and the one that lost $75.
Sources and References
- Sustainable Technologies Evaluation Program, Replacement of Air-Conditioners with Cold-Climate Air-Source Heat Pumps: Pilot Project Findings in The Region of Peel, July 2024
- Independent Electricity System Operator, 2024 Year in Review supply mix data
- Natural Resources Canada, Cold-Climate Air Source Heat Pumps: Assessing Cost-Effectiveness, Energy Savings and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Canadian Homes
- Save on Energy, Home Renovation Savings program
Comparing Local Providers
Other providers in the region include Reliance Home Comfort, City Home Comfort, and Shipton's Heating and Cooling. Compare credentials, warranty terms, rebate handling, and whether the quote specifies a true cold climate unit, then see why Aire One Peel stands out as a Carrier Factory Authorized Dealer and 2023 President's Award winner serving Peel since 1990.
Credentials, rebate amounts, and ratings verified July 2026, subject to change.
