By Mario Vaghei, General Manager, Aire One Peel Heating & Cooling · Published November 11, 2026 · Facts verified November 10, 2026
Short answer
A cold-climate heat pump heats up to 3.5 times more efficiently than a gas furnace, cools the house in summer, runs down to minus 30 degrees and earns an Ontario rebate. The catch for a gas-heated home is price, not performance: at the November 2026 electricity and gas rates a heat pump costs about the same as a gas furnace to run in mild weather and more in a cold snap, so the switch pays off on comfort, cooling and emissions rather than on the heating bill. Electric, oil and propane homes are the opposite case: the switch saves money from the first winter and gets the larger rebate. For many gas homes the practical answer is a hybrid: heat pump plus the existing furnace, with the controls deciding which one runs.
On this page
The pros · The cons, for a gas-heated home · The middle path: a hybrid, or dual-fuel, system · Should you switch? By what you heat with now · Questions to ask before you sign · When to call us · Frequently asked questions
The pros
- Efficiency. Canada.ca: a cold-climate air-source heat pump "Heats space up to 3.5 times more efficiently than a gas furnace" and "up to 3 times more efficiently than an oil furnace or boiler", as an average over the winter. A heat pump transfers heat rather than generating it, which is where the number comes from.
- One system for heating and cooling. The same outdoor unit replaces the air conditioner. If your air conditioner is near the end of its life, the heat pump is the cheaper way to replace it, because you are buying the cooling anyway.
- Cold-weather capability. Cold-climate models work "down to -30°C", which covers Peel Region winters. Our cold-weather guide explains what happens to output as the temperature falls.
- Rebates. The Home Renovation Savings Program pays $500 per ton up to $2,000 for an Enbridge natural gas customer and $1,250 per ton up to $7,500 for a home heated with electricity, oil, propane or wood, with no home energy assessment required and pre-approval mandatory. A federal heat pump rebate is expected in early 2027; our rebates guide tracks it.
- Lower emissions, even as a hybrid. Natural Resources Canada researchers "tracked a 30 percent reduction of GHG emissions for the hybrid system with smart switching controls versus the natural gas furnace alone" over a complete heating season at a test house near Ottawa.
- No combustion in the living space. A heat pump has no burner, flue or heat exchanger to crack.
The cons, for a gas-heated home
- Running cost at today's prices. Our running-cost guide, at the Ontario Energy Board prices from November 1, 2026 and the Enbridge rate of October 1, 2026, puts a 95 per cent gas furnace at about 2.9 cents per kWh of heat and a heat pump at about 3.0 cents on off-peak power in mild weather and 4.5 to 6.5 cents in deep cold or at peak hours. Since the federal carbon charge came off gas bills on April 1, 2025, gas wins the heating bill for most gas homes.
- Upfront cost before the rebate. A cold-climate ducted air-source heat pump installs for about $6,000 to $14,000 CAD in Ontario before rebates; the price guide has the full ranges by system type.
- Backup heat and the electrical panel. On the coldest days a heat pump's output falls while the house's need rises, so an all-electric switch needs backup heat, and an older home may need an electrical service upgrade to carry it.
- Sizing risk. Canada.ca warns that "Improper sizing or installation of a heat pump can result in financial consequences and reduced efficiency", and tells homeowners to ask the contractor: "How are you ensuring that the heat pump is properly sized for my home?"
The middle path: a hybrid, or dual-fuel, system
A hybrid keeps your gas furnace and adds a heat pump in place of the air conditioner. In NRCan's words, hybrid heating works "by relying on the heat pump at moderate outdoor temperatures and during off-peak times, when it is cheaper to heat with the heat pump", and "Then the system switches to a natural gas furnace in cold temperatures and at peak times." The smart controls weigh "natural gas and electricity prices, time of use, outdoor air temperatures" and switch automatically. You get the cooling, the shoulder-season efficiency and the emissions cut without betting the coldest night on electricity. Our heating-system comparison covers when dual fuel is the right call.
Should you switch? By what you heat with now
| You heat with | Switch, hybrid or stay | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Electric baseboards or electric furnace | Switch | Heating cost falls by half to two thirds; rebate up to $7,500 |
| Oil or propane | Switch | Delivered fuel costs far more per unit of heat than gas or a heat pump; rebate up to $7,500 |
| Natural gas, air conditioner due for replacement | Hybrid | You are buying cooling anyway; the heat pump covers mild weather and the furnace covers the cold |
| Natural gas, on Ultra-Low Overnight with a house that holds heat | Hybrid, heat pump leading | Overnight power at 3.7 cents beats gas; the furnace covers the 4 to 9 p.m. block |
| Natural gas, furnace and air conditioner both newer | Stay, for now | No running-cost gain at today's prices; revisit when the air conditioner needs replacing or the federal rebate opens |
Table: our running-cost guide (November 1, 2026 electricity prices; October 1, 2026 gas rate) and Home Renovation Savings Program terms read November 10, 2026.
Questions to ask before you sign
- How was the heat pump sized for my home, and can I see the load calculation?
- Is the model on Natural Resources Canada's qualified products list, which the Ontario rebate requires?
- Has the rebate pre-approval been submitted before the installation date?
- What provides backup heat below the design temperature, and does my electrical panel carry it?
- How long will the unit last? Our heat pump lifespan guide has the ranges.
When to call us
For a sized quote on a heat pump or a hybrid system, call 905-564-8545 or start with heat pump installation in Mississauga.
Frequently asked questions
Is it worth switching from a gas furnace to a heat pump in Ontario?
For comfort, cooling and emissions, often yes; for the heating bill alone at the November 2026 prices, usually not. A heat pump costs about the same as gas to run in mild weather and more in deep cold. A hybrid system captures most of the benefit without giving up the furnace.
Is it worth switching from electric heat to a heat pump?
Yes. Resistance heat has a COP of 1, so a cold-climate heat pump cuts heating cost by half to two thirds, and the Home Renovation Savings Program pays $1,250 per ton up to $7,500.
Does a heat pump work in an Ontario winter?
Cold-climate models work "down to -30°C" according to Canada.ca. Output falls as the temperature drops, so an all-electric home needs backup heat for the coldest days.
What is a hybrid heating system?
A heat pump paired with a gas furnace. The controls run the heat pump at moderate temperatures and off-peak times and switch to the furnace in cold temperatures and at peak times. NRCan measured a 30 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions over a heating season with this setup.
How much is the Ontario rebate for switching to a heat pump?
Through the Home Renovation Savings Program, $500 per ton up to $2,000 for an Enbridge natural gas customer and $1,250 per ton up to $7,500 for a home heated with electricity, oil, propane or wood. Pre-approval is mandatory and no home energy assessment is required.
Sources and references
- Canada.ca, "Heat pump basics" (modified November 5, 2026), read November 10, 2026.
- Natural Resources Canada, "The future of home heating: Hybrid home heating systems offer energy savings and reduce GHG emissions", read November 10, 2026.
- Home Renovation Savings Program, heat pump rebates, read November 10, 2026.
- Ontario Energy Board, "Electricity rates", read November 10, 2026.